The Summer of Jeff

2011 Aussie Open Simulation Results

Posted in programming, tennis by Jeff on January 16, 2011

Using my simple ranking-points-based algorithm to determine the odds that each player wins a match, I ran simulations using the 2011 Australian Open draw.

As usual, the keyword is “simple,” and you can easily find all sorts of intuitive reasons to discount the results.  There’s no consideration for surface, so clay-court specialists are generally overrated.  Players returning from injury (Del Potro, especially, and Karlovic) have seen the hit in the rankings, and are thus underrated here, as well.

I’m also publishing the code that I use to generate these sims. It should work for any single-elimination tournament up to 128 competitors, and is easily expandable to handle larger brackets.  The function ‘calcWP’ is specific to my tennis algorithm, but you could swap in something like log5 very easily. I also included the .csv file I used for the draw, so you can see the format, or tinker with the parameters and come up with your own Aussie sim.

Your 2011 Australian Open…

Player               points    R64    R32    R16     QF     SF      F      W  
Nadal             1   12390  96.9%  92.7%  87.0%  78.1%  66.1%  49.6%  34.5%  
Daniel                  564   3.1%   1.4%   0.5%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Sweeting          Q     486  35.3%   1.6%   0.5%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Gimeno-Traver           844  64.7%   4.3%   1.9%   0.7%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%  
Tomic             W     239  17.9%   3.1%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Chardy                  960  82.1%  39.6%   3.7%   1.4%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%  
Falla                   540  27.3%  11.3%   0.7%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Lopez F          31    1310  72.7%  46.0%   5.6%   2.6%   0.9%   0.2%   0.0%  
                                                                              
Isner            20    1850  74.0%  56.8%  31.7%   5.8%   2.5%   0.8%   0.2%  
Serra                   711  26.0%  14.0%   4.6%   0.5%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Stepanek                735  62.1%  20.4%   6.9%   0.6%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%  
Gremelmayr        Q     469  37.9%   8.8%   2.2%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Machado                 573  41.2%  10.2%   3.3%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Giraldo                 785  58.8%  18.3%   7.2%   0.7%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%  
Young D           Q     435  14.6%   5.4%   1.4%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Cilic            15    2140  85.4%  66.1%  42.8%   8.7%   4.1%   1.4%   0.4%  
                                                                              
Youzhny          10    2920  85.6%  70.1%  51.9%  29.2%   8.1%   3.3%   1.1%  
Ilhan                   574  14.4%   6.2%   2.2%   0.5%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Kavcic            Q     552  38.0%   7.1%   2.4%   0.5%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Anderson K              868  62.0%  16.6%   7.4%   2.1%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%  
Raonic            Q     351  36.4%   6.8%   1.0%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Phau                    581  63.6%  18.0%   4.1%   0.9%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Chela                  1070  39.3%  27.8%   9.9%   3.2%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%  
Llodra           22    1575  60.7%  47.4%  21.0%   8.8%   1.6%   0.4%   0.1%  
                                                                              
Nalbandian       27    1480  64.2%  49.1%  18.4%   8.2%   1.4%   0.4%   0.1%  
Hewitt                  870  35.8%  23.1%   6.1%   2.0%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%  
Berankis                589  61.1%  19.1%   3.9%   1.0%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Matosevic         W     392  38.9%   8.8%   1.4%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Russell                 547  67.0%  10.1%   3.6%   0.8%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Ebden             W     288  33.0%   2.7%   0.6%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Nieminen               1062  20.2%  14.5%   7.7%   2.8%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%  
Ferrer            7    3735  79.8%  72.7%  58.4%  39.4%  12.6%   5.8%   2.4%  
                                                                              
Soderling         4    5785  87.9%  83.6%  71.9%  58.3%  35.9%  15.6%   7.9%  
Starace                 945  12.1%   8.9%   4.2%   1.7%   0.3%   0.0%   0.0%  
Muller            Q     466  76.9%   6.9%   2.0%   0.5%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Stadler           Q     155  23.1%   0.7%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Istomin                1031  86.2%  41.8%   8.8%   3.6%   0.8%   0.1%   0.0%  
Hernych           Q     196  13.8%   1.9%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Mello                   627  30.0%  12.8%   1.9%   0.6%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Bellucci         30    1355  70.0%  43.5%  11.0%   5.3%   1.4%   0.2%   0.1%  
                                                                              
Gulbis           24    1505  64.3%  41.5%  20.7%   6.3%   1.9%   0.4%   0.1%  
Becker                  870  35.7%  17.9%   6.4%   1.3%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%  
Dolgopolov              928  53.6%  22.8%   8.6%   1.8%   0.4%   0.0%   0.0%  
Kukushkin               815  46.4%  17.9%   6.3%   1.2%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%  
Seppi                   900  59.6%  19.2%   8.7%   1.9%   0.4%   0.0%   0.0%  
Clement                 627  40.4%   9.9%   3.5%   0.6%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Petzschner              839  24.3%  12.6%   5.5%   1.1%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%  
Tsonga           13    2345  75.7%  58.2%  40.4%  15.8%   6.3%   1.6%   0.5%  
                                                                              
Melzer           11    2785  91.2%  77.7%  54.3%  22.9%  10.4%   3.0%   1.0%  
Millot            Q     334   8.8%   3.3%   0.7%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Ball              W     344  32.5%   4.1%   0.9%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Riba                    672  67.5%  14.8%   5.5%   1.0%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%  
Sela                    568  77.8%  21.8%   5.0%   0.7%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Del Potro               180  22.2%   2.4%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Zemlja            Q     376  15.1%   6.9%   1.2%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Baghdatis        21    1785  84.9%  68.9%  32.2%  10.7%   3.8%   0.8%   0.2%  
                                                                              
Garcia-Lopez     32    1300  62.1%  44.0%  10.6%   4.2%   1.2%   0.2%   0.0%  
Berrer                  835  37.9%  22.8%   3.9%   1.1%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%  
Schwank                 580  50.6%  16.9%   2.3%   0.5%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Mayer L                 572  49.4%  16.3%   2.1%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Marchenko               624  49.3%   5.5%   2.3%   0.6%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Ramirez Hidalgo         638  50.7%   5.7%   2.4%   0.6%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Beck K                  543   7.0%   3.2%   1.2%   0.3%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Murray            5    5760  93.0%  85.5%  75.3%  56.7%  35.5%  15.6%   7.9%  
                                                                              
Berdych           6    3955  96.4%  78.5%  63.1%  42.3%  22.0%   9.6%   3.4%  
Crugnola          Q     194   3.6%   0.5%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Kohlschreiber          1215  63.8%  15.2%   8.3%   3.1%   0.9%   0.2%   0.0%  
Kamke                   724  36.2%   5.8%   2.4%   0.7%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Harrison          W     313  32.3%   6.7%   0.6%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Mannarino               612  67.7%  22.8%   3.9%   0.9%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Dancevic          Q     172   9.0%   2.2%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Gasquet          28    1385  91.0%  68.3%  21.5%   8.8%   2.5%   0.6%   0.1%  
                                                                              
Davydenko        23    1555  60.0%  41.5%  17.1%   6.5%   2.0%   0.5%   0.1%  
Mayer F                1073  40.0%  23.9%   8.0%   2.3%   0.6%   0.1%   0.0%  
Fognini                 855  59.6%  22.7%   6.5%   1.7%   0.3%   0.0%   0.0%  
Nishikori               599  40.4%  12.0%   2.7%   0.5%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Zverev                  611  38.3%   7.2%   2.4%   0.5%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Tipsarevic              935  61.7%  16.0%   7.2%   2.0%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%  
Schuettler              597  13.5%   5.8%   1.9%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Verdasco          9    3240  86.5%  71.1%  54.1%  30.3%  14.2%   5.7%   1.8%  
                                                                              
Almagro          14    2160  84.5%  68.0%  41.9%  15.4%   6.8%   2.2%   0.5%  
Robert            Q     460  15.5%   6.6%   1.8%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Andreev                 622  52.1%  13.7%   4.5%   0.8%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Volandri                574  47.9%  11.8%   3.6%   0.5%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Cipolla           Q     190  32.6%   3.4%   0.4%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Paire             W     366  67.4%  12.5%   2.5%   0.3%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Luczak            W     400  14.7%   8.6%   1.9%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Ljubicic         17    1965  85.3%  75.5%  43.4%  15.1%   6.2%   1.8%   0.4%  
                                                                              
Troicki          29    1385  86.2%  64.4%  16.2%   7.2%   2.4%   0.5%   0.1%  
Tursunov                263  13.8%   4.5%   0.3%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Dabul                   584  58.6%  19.8%   2.7%   0.7%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Mahut             Q     424  41.4%  11.3%   1.1%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Karlovic                670  52.8%   6.2%   2.5%   0.7%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Dodig                   606  47.2%   5.0%   2.0%   0.5%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Granollers              993  11.6%   7.2%   3.6%   1.4%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%  
Djokovic          3    6240  88.4%  81.6%  71.5%  56.9%  40.2%  21.9%  10.2%  
                                                                              
Roddick           8    3565  88.5%  78.1%  61.4%  42.2%  16.8%   8.1%   2.7%  
Hajek                   560  11.5%   5.8%   2.0%   0.4%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Przysiezny              590  51.7%   8.5%   2.9%   0.7%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Kunitsyn                551  48.3%   7.6%   2.5%   0.7%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Berlocq                 725  47.1%  16.8%   4.0%   1.2%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%  
Haase                   803  52.9%  20.0%   5.2%   1.7%   0.3%   0.0%   0.0%  
Benneteau               965  38.5%  21.8%   6.3%   2.3%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%  
Monaco           26    1480  61.5%  41.5%  15.7%   7.2%   1.7%   0.5%   0.1%  
                                                                              
Wawrinka         19    1855  76.7%  52.3%  28.1%  12.8%   3.5%   1.2%   0.2%  
Gabashvili              626  23.3%   9.4%   2.6%   0.6%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Dimitrov          Q     518  29.5%   7.5%   1.8%   0.4%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Golubev                1135  70.5%  30.8%  12.7%   4.2%   0.8%   0.2%   0.0%  
Gil                     551  40.2%   8.3%   2.4%   0.5%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Cuevas                  790  59.8%  16.4%   6.1%   1.6%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%  
De Bakker               950  25.2%  14.9%   6.2%   1.9%   0.3%   0.1%   0.0%  
Monfils          12    2560  74.8%  60.4%  40.2%  21.5%   7.2%   2.9%   0.7%  
                                                                              
Fish             16    1996  70.1%  52.0%  32.0%   8.2%   3.9%   1.3%   0.3%  
Hanescu                 915  29.9%  16.4%   6.8%   1.0%   0.3%   0.0%   0.0%  
Robredo                 915  65.2%  23.4%   9.9%   1.5%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%  
Devvarman               514  34.8%   8.2%   2.4%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Stakhovsky              925  64.4%  24.8%  10.2%   1.6%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%  
Brands                  541  35.6%   9.3%   2.6%   0.3%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Kubot                   670  24.5%  11.4%   3.9%   0.5%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Querrey          18    1860  75.5%  54.5%  32.1%   7.8%   3.4%   1.1%   0.2%  
                                                                              
Montanes         25    1495  74.3%  48.4%   8.8%   4.5%   1.7%   0.5%   0.1%  
Brown                   573  25.7%  10.3%   0.9%   0.2%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Andujar                 683  40.9%  14.9%   1.4%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%  
Malisse                 956  59.1%  26.4%   3.4%   1.4%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%  
Lu                     1141  53.7%   6.2%   3.2%   1.4%   0.5%   0.1%   0.0%  
Simon                  1005  46.3%   4.8%   2.3%   0.9%   0.3%   0.1%   0.0%  
Lacko                   553   4.3%   1.4%   0.4%   0.1%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%  
Federer           2    9245  95.7%  87.6%  79.6%  70.0%  56.6%  40.3%  22.4% 
Advertisements

2 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. […] to someone with 1,305 ranking points, which would be 32nd in the world.  Instead of giving him a 36% chance of winning his first round match against David Nalbandian, the home-court-adjusted number would […]

  2. […] As he was a local and a wild card, we now know to adjust his ranking points twice before estimating his likelihood of winning a match.  Instead of estimating his talent with his pre-tourney ranking point total of 239, we adjust upward to 435.  That still puts him as an underdog against Chardy’s 960 points, but it means we would have given him a 30% chance of winning instead of an 18% chance. […]


Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: