Marcel forecasts 1941
Here’s something I’ve been meaning to do for a long time.
Using 1938-40 stats and the Marcel forecasting algorithm, I generated batter projections for the 1941 season. You can download the full spreadsheet (CSV) here.
My intention was to follow Tango’s algorithm exactly. I didn’t do any park adjustments, nor did I consider any league differences. I included a “reliability” column to indicate how much data each projection was based on. Those numbers top out at about 0.88 for a player who played full seasons in 1938-40, and is 0 for a rookie with no MLB experience. I ran projections for every non-pitcher who played in 1938, ’39, ’40, or ’41.
As you might imagine, Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio come out near the top. But neither would have been projected to have the best offensive season in 1941; that honor went to Hank Greenberg, who had to leave a 269/410/463 slash line when he was drafted in May. Those three, along with Johnny Mize and Jimmy Foxx, would have been forecast as the best of the bunch; Marcel gives them all wOBAs between .431 and .441. No one else is above .407.
Pitchers and other seasons to come soon.