2009 US Open Predictatron
Now that the qualifiers are entered in the men’s draw for the 2009 US Open, I’ve used my brand-spankin’-new formula to predict the outcome of the tournament.
I shouldn’t have to say this, but: This is just a toy. If you’re using these numbers to place your bets, you probably aren’t very smart. In the post linked above, I list a number of flaws in the system. There are probably more that I haven’t thought of yet.
Because my method is based on ATP ranking points, it should come as no surprise that a player’s ATP ranking is very highly correlated to their chances of winning the tournament. Once you get to #10 or so, though, there are some quirks.
Here are the ten players with the best shot at winning it, along with their percent chances for the semis, finals, and championship:
Player points SF F W Federer (1) 12040 68.83 48.57 31.17 Murray (2) 9610 54.27 34.98 19.19 Nadal (3) 9025 54.29 32.49 17.34 Djokovic (4) 7660 47.19 23.58 12.42 Roddick (5) 5720 28.73 12.32 5.55 Del Potro (6) 5325 21.06 10.58 4.24 Tsonga (7) 3920 19.31 7.64 2.52 Davydenko (8) 3655 13.82 5.77 2.00 Simon (9) 3410 10.68 4.22 1.26 Gonzalez F (11) 2825 8.87 2.86 0.75
Freddie just barely edges out 10th-seeded Fernando Verdasco for the last spot.
And since that isn’t nearly enough data, what follows is the complete draw, along with each player’s chance of reaching each round.
Player points 2nd 3rd 4th QF SF F W Federer (1) 12040 99.98 95.78 90.27 81.39 68.83 48.57 31.17 Britton 4 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Lapentti G (Q) 341 27.18 0.53 0.14 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 Greul 836 72.82 3.69 1.79 0.63 0.16 0.02 0.00 Chela 467 38.33 11.63 0.49 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.00 Hernandez Oscar 720 61.67 25.18 1.57 0.50 0.11 0.01 0.00 Alves 592 29.89 14.69 0.76 0.22 0.04 0.01 0.00 Hewitt (31) 1285 70.11 48.50 4.97 2.28 0.80 0.16 0.02 Blake (21) 1520 75.35 47.68 23.37 3.34 1.29 0.30 0.05 Ramirez-Hidalgo 551 24.65 8.99 2.32 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.00 Rochus O 678 37.12 13.27 3.97 0.31 0.07 0.01 0.00 Kunitsyn 1098 62.88 30.07 12.31 1.38 0.43 0.08 0.01 Polansky (Q) 301 21.40 3.08 0.61 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 Garcia-Lopez 984 78.60 27.44 12.70 1.31 0.38 0.07 0.01 Young D (Q) 336 11.41 3.37 0.71 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 Robredo (14) 2165 88.59 66.11 44.02 8.29 3.95 1.17 0.28 Soderling (12) 2665 74.83 58.65 40.49 21.44 5.34 1.82 0.50 Montanes 991 25.17 13.90 6.04 1.82 0.22 0.04 0.01 Zverev 930 58.48 17.60 7.39 2.12 0.24 0.04 0.00 Granollers 680 41.52 9.85 3.36 0.77 0.07 0.01 0.00 Kim 632 32.23 10.56 2.87 0.63 0.05 0.01 0.00 Sela 1244 67.77 33.20 14.01 4.91 0.71 0.14 0.02 Yani (Q) 220 10.63 1.75 0.20 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 Querrey (22) 1520 89.37 54.49 25.64 10.17 1.74 0.41 0.08 Mathieu (26) 1390 62.62 45.79 15.45 7.04 1.11 0.24 0.04 Youzhny 870 37.38 23.20 5.66 1.93 0.22 0.03 0.00 Starace 665 64.65 22.77 4.61 1.28 0.11 0.01 0.00 Chiudinelli (Q) 386 35.35 8.24 1.07 0.19 0.01 0.00 0.00 Hernych 812 56.81 10.96 5.03 1.63 0.17 0.02 0.00 Schuettler 635 43.19 6.83 2.71 0.74 0.06 0.01 0.00 Kindlmann (Q) 258 5.18 1.26 0.25 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 Davydenko (8) 3655 94.82 80.95 65.22 45.27 13.82 5.77 2.00 Djokovic (4) 7660 90.59 87.43 78.49 68.08 47.19 23.58 12.42 Ljubicic 976 9.41 7.01 3.44 1.47 0.35 0.04 0.01 Brzezicki (Q) 334 44.91 2.25 0.55 0.11 0.01 0.00 0.00 Ball (Q) 402 55.09 3.30 0.91 0.21 0.02 0.00 0.00 Beck K 654 46.61 16.97 1.99 0.65 0.11 0.01 0.00 Gonzalez Maximo 739 53.39 21.05 2.75 0.98 0.18 0.02 0.00 Witten (Q) 197 10.87 2.16 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 Andreev (29) 1330 89.13 59.82 11.76 5.96 1.71 0.27 0.04 Kohlschreiber (23) 1510 61.46 47.40 25.22 6.13 1.92 0.35 0.07 Seppi 990 38.54 26.23 11.12 2.03 0.47 0.06 0.01 Devvarman (Q) 386 39.07 8.35 1.80 0.15 0.02 0.00 0.00 Gil 579 60.93 18.03 5.35 0.64 0.10 0.01 0.00 Golubev 901 52.01 18.58 8.69 1.45 0.32 0.04 0.00 Mayer 834 47.99 16.32 7.30 1.15 0.24 0.03 0.00 Bolelli 816 27.18 13.10 5.77 0.91 0.18 0.02 0.00 Stepanek (15) 2000 72.82 52.01 34.75 10.09 3.81 0.85 0.19 Verdasco (10) 3015 76.15 60.89 43.40 20.18 8.14 2.39 0.72 Becker 1054 23.85 13.26 5.98 1.49 0.30 0.04 0.01 Serra 866 50.29 13.09 5.24 1.15 0.21 0.02 0.00 Tipsarevic 855 49.71 12.76 5.07 1.10 0.19 0.02 0.00 Kendrick 747 42.81 14.67 4.13 0.80 0.13 0.01 0.00 Vassallo Arguello 973 57.19 23.11 7.79 1.86 0.36 0.05 0.01 Falla (Q) 386 15.88 4.67 0.78 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00 Haas (20) 1760 84.12 57.56 27.61 9.57 2.82 0.57 0.12 Hanescu (28) 1346 60.55 41.64 10.68 4.48 1.11 0.19 0.03 Isner 914 39.45 23.49 4.58 1.48 0.28 0.03 0.00 Ilhan (Q) 243 21.24 3.31 0.21 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rochus C 799 78.76 31.56 5.54 1.68 0.29 0.03 0.00 Gicquel 729 36.00 4.76 1.99 0.57 0.09 0.01 0.00 Turnsunov 1230 64.00 12.83 7.13 2.85 0.66 0.10 0.01 Phau 707 9.17 3.68 1.50 0.42 0.07 0.01 0.00 Roddick (5) 5720 90.83 78.72 68.37 52.27 28.73 12.32 5.55 Tsonga (7) 3920 99.77 83.94 67.92 46.02 19.31 7.64 2.52 Buchanan Chase 16 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nieminen 924 54.50 9.33 4.39 1.46 0.25 0.03 0.00 Fognini 785 45.50 6.73 2.88 0.85 0.13 0.02 0.00 Cipolla 537 31.68 10.11 1.45 0.32 0.03 0.00 0.00 Benneteau 1079 68.32 34.09 8.65 3.16 0.57 0.09 0.01 Luczak (LL) 744 34.74 15.98 3.06 0.87 0.12 0.01 0.00 Troicki (30) 1320 65.26 39.83 11.67 4.79 1.02 0.20 0.03 Berdych 1945 75.67 58.11 29.81 12.74 3.53 0.88 0.18 Odesnik 694 24.33 12.58 3.57 0.77 0.10 0.01 0.00 Berrer (Q) 521 39.98 9.89 2.26 0.38 0.04 0.00 0.00 Zeballos (Q) 750 60.02 19.41 5.75 1.31 0.19 0.02 0.00 Ouanna (Q) 623 54.18 11.59 3.82 0.75 0.09 0.01 0.00 Ram 534 45.82 8.64 2.58 0.45 0.05 0.01 0.00 Massu 678 17.18 9.35 3.27 0.69 0.08 0.01 0.00 Gonzalez F (11) 2825 82.82 70.42 48.95 25.44 8.87 2.86 0.75 Monfils (13) 2475 67.67 50.02 33.16 9.91 4.75 1.40 0.33 Chardy 1267 32.33 18.69 9.20 1.80 0.57 0.10 0.01 Korolev 732 38.58 9.86 3.49 0.46 0.10 0.01 0.00 Beck A 1115 61.42 21.44 9.90 1.75 0.50 0.08 0.01 Daniel 890 47.99 17.79 6.20 0.96 0.23 0.03 0.00 Acasuso 960 52.01 20.22 7.33 1.20 0.30 0.04 0.01 Martin 664 24.10 9.89 2.76 0.33 0.07 0.01 0.00 Ferrer (18) 1890 75.90 52.10 27.97 7.09 2.93 0.73 0.14 Almagro (32) 1285 68.38 44.31 7.56 3.31 1.05 0.19 0.03 Darcis 638 31.62 14.67 1.51 0.41 0.07 0.01 0.00 Ginepri 765 97.22 40.97 4.81 1.50 0.32 0.04 0.00 Pavel 30 2.78 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Llodra 540 52.11 3.49 1.25 0.30 0.05 0.00 0.00 Kiefer 500 47.89 2.98 1.01 0.23 0.03 0.00 0.00 Gasquet 1045 8.54 5.85 3.12 1.21 0.34 0.05 0.01 Nadal (3) 9025 91.46 87.68 80.74 69.54 54.29 32.49 17.34 Del Potro (6) 5325 84.82 72.76 62.38 45.04 21.06 10.58 4.24 Monaco 1110 15.18 7.87 4.12 1.45 0.25 0.05 0.01 Melzer 1160 57.53 12.19 6.58 2.36 0.42 0.08 0.01 Safin 880 42.47 7.18 3.36 1.01 0.15 0.02 0.00 Cuevas 813 57.20 22.92 4.55 1.30 0.18 0.03 0.00 Guccione 625 42.80 14.32 2.29 0.54 0.06 0.01 0.00 Koellerer 862 36.81 20.08 4.16 1.23 0.18 0.03 0.00 Fish (25) 1410 63.19 42.68 12.55 5.08 1.06 0.24 0.03 Ferrero JC (24) 1490 59.27 37.20 14.71 5.07 1.12 0.25 0.04 Santoro 1060 40.73 22.07 7.06 1.97 0.33 0.06 0.01 Petzchner 1147 72.44 33.80 11.45 3.37 0.61 0.11 0.01 Stakhovsky 476 27.56 6.93 1.24 0.19 0.02 0.00 0.00 Bellucci (Q) 813 50.31 11.28 4.54 1.03 0.14 0.02 0.00 Lu 803 49.69 11.08 4.44 1.02 0.14 0.02 0.00 Gimeno-Traver 627 13.43 5.80 1.97 0.38 0.04 0.00 0.00 Simon (9) 3410 86.57 71.84 54.59 28.94 10.68 4.22 1.26 Cilic (16) 1985 83.40 64.45 39.73 9.53 3.69 1.04 0.20 Sweeting 458 16.60 6.81 1.87 0.15 0.02 0.00 0.00 Gabashvili 769 63.19 20.41 7.83 0.95 0.19 0.02 0.00 Levine 470 36.81 8.32 2.30 0.18 0.02 0.00 0.00 Istomin 587 53.63 15.01 4.58 0.45 0.07 0.01 0.00 Evans 514 46.37 11.80 3.29 0.29 0.04 0.00 0.00 Lapentti N 378 14.91 5.93 1.30 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00 Wawrinka (19) 1845 85.09 67.26 39.10 8.93 3.27 0.87 0.16 Karlovic (27) 1360 74.02 43.55 6.94 3.28 1.00 0.21 0.03 Navarro 525 25.98 9.14 0.70 0.18 0.03 0.00 0.00 Lopez F 1205 81.74 43.40 6.34 2.80 0.77 0.15 0.02 Dent 309 18.26 3.92 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 Capdeville 680 51.62 3.81 1.42 0.43 0.08 0.01 0.00 Crivoi 640 48.38 3.38 1.21 0.35 0.06 0.01 0.00 Gulbis 640 4.80 2.35 0.81 0.24 0.04 0.00 0.00 Murray (2) 9610 95.20 90.47 82.38 72.15 54.27 34.98 19.19
The Summer of Jeff 
In the second table, you missed the seeding of Tomas Berdych, who is seeded #17.