The Summer of Jeff

2009 US Open Predictatron

Posted in tennis by Jeff on August 30, 2009

Now that the qualifiers are entered in the men’s draw for the 2009 US Open, I’ve used my brand-spankin’-new formula to predict the outcome of the tournament.

I shouldn’t have to say this, but: This is just a toy.  If you’re using these numbers to place your bets, you probably aren’t very smart.  In the post linked above, I list a number of flaws in the system.  There are probably more that I haven’t thought of yet.

Because my method is based on ATP ranking points, it should come as no surprise that a player’s ATP ranking is very highly correlated to their chances of winning the tournament.  Once you get to #10 or so, though, there are some quirks.

Here are the ten players with the best shot at winning it, along with their percent chances for the semis, finals, and championship:

Player           points     SF      F      W
Federer (1)      12040   68.83  48.57  31.17
Murray (2)       9610    54.27  34.98  19.19
Nadal (3)        9025    54.29  32.49  17.34
Djokovic (4)     7660    47.19  23.58  12.42
Roddick (5)      5720    28.73  12.32   5.55
Del Potro (6)    5325    21.06  10.58   4.24
Tsonga (7)       3920    19.31   7.64   2.52
Davydenko (8)    3655    13.82   5.77   2.00
Simon (9)        3410    10.68   4.22   1.26
Gonzalez F (11)  2825     8.87   2.86   0.75

Freddie just barely edges out 10th-seeded Fernando Verdasco for the last spot.

And since that isn’t nearly enough data, what follows is the complete draw, along with each player’s chance of reaching each round.

Player              points    2nd    3rd    4th     QF     SF      F      W
Federer (1)         12040   99.98  95.78  90.27  81.39  68.83  48.57  31.17
Britton             4        0.02   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00
Lapentti G (Q)      341     27.18   0.53   0.14   0.02   0.00   0.00   0.00
Greul               836     72.82   3.69   1.79   0.63   0.16   0.02   0.00
Chela               467     38.33  11.63   0.49   0.11   0.02   0.00   0.00
Hernandez Oscar     720     61.67  25.18   1.57   0.50   0.11   0.01   0.00
Alves               592     29.89  14.69   0.76   0.22   0.04   0.01   0.00
Hewitt (31)         1285    70.11  48.50   4.97   2.28   0.80   0.16   0.02

Blake (21)          1520    75.35  47.68  23.37   3.34   1.29   0.30   0.05
Ramirez-Hidalgo     551     24.65   8.99   2.32   0.15   0.03   0.00   0.00
Rochus O            678     37.12  13.27   3.97   0.31   0.07   0.01   0.00
Kunitsyn            1098    62.88  30.07  12.31   1.38   0.43   0.08   0.01
Polansky (Q)        301     21.40   3.08   0.61   0.02   0.00   0.00   0.00
Garcia-Lopez        984     78.60  27.44  12.70   1.31   0.38   0.07   0.01
Young D (Q)         336     11.41   3.37   0.71   0.03   0.00   0.00   0.00
Robredo (14)        2165    88.59  66.11  44.02   8.29   3.95   1.17   0.28

Soderling (12)      2665    74.83  58.65  40.49  21.44   5.34   1.82   0.50
Montanes            991     25.17  13.90   6.04   1.82   0.22   0.04   0.01
Zverev              930     58.48  17.60   7.39   2.12   0.24   0.04   0.00
Granollers          680     41.52   9.85   3.36   0.77   0.07   0.01   0.00
Kim                 632     32.23  10.56   2.87   0.63   0.05   0.01   0.00
Sela                1244    67.77  33.20  14.01   4.91   0.71   0.14   0.02
Yani (Q)            220     10.63   1.75   0.20   0.02   0.00   0.00   0.00
Querrey (22)        1520    89.37  54.49  25.64  10.17   1.74   0.41   0.08

Mathieu (26)        1390    62.62  45.79  15.45   7.04   1.11   0.24   0.04
Youzhny             870     37.38  23.20   5.66   1.93   0.22   0.03   0.00
Starace             665     64.65  22.77   4.61   1.28   0.11   0.01   0.00
Chiudinelli (Q)     386     35.35   8.24   1.07   0.19   0.01   0.00   0.00
Hernych             812     56.81  10.96   5.03   1.63   0.17   0.02   0.00
Schuettler          635     43.19   6.83   2.71   0.74   0.06   0.01   0.00
Kindlmann (Q)       258      5.18   1.26   0.25   0.03   0.00   0.00   0.00
Davydenko (8)       3655    94.82  80.95  65.22  45.27  13.82   5.77   2.00

Djokovic (4)        7660    90.59  87.43  78.49  68.08  47.19  23.58  12.42
Ljubicic            976      9.41   7.01   3.44   1.47   0.35   0.04   0.01
Brzezicki (Q)       334     44.91   2.25   0.55   0.11   0.01   0.00   0.00
Ball (Q)            402     55.09   3.30   0.91   0.21   0.02   0.00   0.00
Beck K              654     46.61  16.97   1.99   0.65   0.11   0.01   0.00
Gonzalez Maximo     739     53.39  21.05   2.75   0.98   0.18   0.02   0.00
Witten (Q)          197     10.87   2.16   0.10   0.01   0.00   0.00   0.00
Andreev (29)        1330    89.13  59.82  11.76   5.96   1.71   0.27   0.04

Kohlschreiber (23)  1510    61.46  47.40  25.22   6.13   1.92   0.35   0.07
Seppi               990     38.54  26.23  11.12   2.03   0.47   0.06   0.01
Devvarman (Q)       386     39.07   8.35   1.80   0.15   0.02   0.00   0.00
Gil                 579     60.93  18.03   5.35   0.64   0.10   0.01   0.00
Golubev             901     52.01  18.58   8.69   1.45   0.32   0.04   0.00
Mayer               834     47.99  16.32   7.30   1.15   0.24   0.03   0.00
Bolelli             816     27.18  13.10   5.77   0.91   0.18   0.02   0.00
Stepanek (15)       2000    72.82  52.01  34.75  10.09   3.81   0.85   0.19

Verdasco (10)       3015    76.15  60.89  43.40  20.18   8.14   2.39   0.72
Becker              1054    23.85  13.26   5.98   1.49   0.30   0.04   0.01
Serra               866     50.29  13.09   5.24   1.15   0.21   0.02   0.00
Tipsarevic          855     49.71  12.76   5.07   1.10   0.19   0.02   0.00
Kendrick            747     42.81  14.67   4.13   0.80   0.13   0.01   0.00
Vassallo Arguello   973     57.19  23.11   7.79   1.86   0.36   0.05   0.01
Falla (Q)           386     15.88   4.67   0.78   0.09   0.01   0.00   0.00
Haas (20)           1760    84.12  57.56  27.61   9.57   2.82   0.57   0.12

Hanescu (28)        1346    60.55  41.64  10.68   4.48   1.11   0.19   0.03
Isner               914     39.45  23.49   4.58   1.48   0.28   0.03   0.00
Ilhan (Q)           243     21.24   3.31   0.21   0.02   0.00   0.00   0.00
Rochus C            799     78.76  31.56   5.54   1.68   0.29   0.03   0.00
Gicquel             729     36.00   4.76   1.99   0.57   0.09   0.01   0.00
Turnsunov           1230    64.00  12.83   7.13   2.85   0.66   0.10   0.01
Phau                707      9.17   3.68   1.50   0.42   0.07   0.01   0.00
Roddick (5)         5720    90.83  78.72  68.37  52.27  28.73  12.32   5.55

Tsonga (7)          3920    99.77  83.94  67.92  46.02  19.31   7.64   2.52
Buchanan Chase      16       0.23   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00
Nieminen            924     54.50   9.33   4.39   1.46   0.25   0.03   0.00
Fognini             785     45.50   6.73   2.88   0.85   0.13   0.02   0.00
Cipolla             537     31.68  10.11   1.45   0.32   0.03   0.00   0.00
Benneteau           1079    68.32  34.09   8.65   3.16   0.57   0.09   0.01
Luczak (LL)         744     34.74  15.98   3.06   0.87   0.12   0.01   0.00
Troicki (30)        1320    65.26  39.83  11.67   4.79   1.02   0.20   0.03

Berdych             1945    75.67  58.11  29.81  12.74   3.53   0.88   0.18
Odesnik             694     24.33  12.58   3.57   0.77   0.10   0.01   0.00
Berrer (Q)          521     39.98   9.89   2.26   0.38   0.04   0.00   0.00
Zeballos (Q)        750     60.02  19.41   5.75   1.31   0.19   0.02   0.00
Ouanna (Q)          623     54.18  11.59   3.82   0.75   0.09   0.01   0.00
Ram                 534     45.82   8.64   2.58   0.45   0.05   0.01   0.00
Massu               678     17.18   9.35   3.27   0.69   0.08   0.01   0.00
Gonzalez F (11)     2825    82.82  70.42  48.95  25.44   8.87   2.86   0.75

Monfils (13)        2475    67.67  50.02  33.16   9.91   4.75   1.40   0.33
Chardy              1267    32.33  18.69   9.20   1.80   0.57   0.10   0.01
Korolev             732     38.58   9.86   3.49   0.46   0.10   0.01   0.00
Beck A              1115    61.42  21.44   9.90   1.75   0.50   0.08   0.01
Daniel              890     47.99  17.79   6.20   0.96   0.23   0.03   0.00
Acasuso             960     52.01  20.22   7.33   1.20   0.30   0.04   0.01
Martin              664     24.10   9.89   2.76   0.33   0.07   0.01   0.00
Ferrer (18)         1890    75.90  52.10  27.97   7.09   2.93   0.73   0.14

Almagro (32)        1285    68.38  44.31   7.56   3.31   1.05   0.19   0.03
Darcis              638     31.62  14.67   1.51   0.41   0.07   0.01   0.00
Ginepri             765     97.22  40.97   4.81   1.50   0.32   0.04   0.00
Pavel               30       2.78   0.06   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00
Llodra              540     52.11   3.49   1.25   0.30   0.05   0.00   0.00
Kiefer              500     47.89   2.98   1.01   0.23   0.03   0.00   0.00
Gasquet             1045     8.54   5.85   3.12   1.21   0.34   0.05   0.01
Nadal (3)           9025    91.46  87.68  80.74  69.54  54.29  32.49  17.34

Del Potro (6)       5325    84.82  72.76  62.38  45.04  21.06  10.58   4.24
Monaco              1110    15.18   7.87   4.12   1.45   0.25   0.05   0.01
Melzer              1160    57.53  12.19   6.58   2.36   0.42   0.08   0.01
Safin               880     42.47   7.18   3.36   1.01   0.15   0.02   0.00
Cuevas              813     57.20  22.92   4.55   1.30   0.18   0.03   0.00
Guccione            625     42.80  14.32   2.29   0.54   0.06   0.01   0.00
Koellerer           862     36.81  20.08   4.16   1.23   0.18   0.03   0.00
Fish (25)           1410    63.19  42.68  12.55   5.08   1.06   0.24   0.03

Ferrero JC (24)     1490    59.27  37.20  14.71   5.07   1.12   0.25   0.04
Santoro             1060    40.73  22.07   7.06   1.97   0.33   0.06   0.01
Petzchner           1147    72.44  33.80  11.45   3.37   0.61   0.11   0.01
Stakhovsky          476     27.56   6.93   1.24   0.19   0.02   0.00   0.00
Bellucci (Q)        813     50.31  11.28   4.54   1.03   0.14   0.02   0.00
Lu                  803     49.69  11.08   4.44   1.02   0.14   0.02   0.00
Gimeno-Traver       627     13.43   5.80   1.97   0.38   0.04   0.00   0.00
Simon (9)           3410    86.57  71.84  54.59  28.94  10.68   4.22   1.26

Cilic (16)          1985    83.40  64.45  39.73   9.53   3.69   1.04   0.20
Sweeting            458     16.60   6.81   1.87   0.15   0.02   0.00   0.00
Gabashvili          769     63.19  20.41   7.83   0.95   0.19   0.02   0.00
Levine              470     36.81   8.32   2.30   0.18   0.02   0.00   0.00
Istomin             587     53.63  15.01   4.58   0.45   0.07   0.01   0.00
Evans               514     46.37  11.80   3.29   0.29   0.04   0.00   0.00
Lapentti N          378     14.91   5.93   1.30   0.09   0.01   0.00   0.00
Wawrinka (19)       1845    85.09  67.26  39.10   8.93   3.27   0.87   0.16

Karlovic (27)       1360    74.02  43.55   6.94   3.28   1.00   0.21   0.03
Navarro             525     25.98   9.14   0.70   0.18   0.03   0.00   0.00
Lopez F             1205    81.74  43.40   6.34   2.80   0.77   0.15   0.02
Dent                309     18.26   3.92   0.19   0.03   0.00   0.00   0.00
Capdeville          680     51.62   3.81   1.42   0.43   0.08   0.01   0.00
Crivoi              640     48.38   3.38   1.21   0.35   0.06   0.01   0.00
Gulbis              640      4.80   2.35   0.81   0.24   0.04   0.00   0.00
Murray (2)          9610    95.20  90.47  82.38  72.15  54.27  34.98  19.19
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One Response

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  1. Kyle said, on August 30, 2009 at 1:27 pm

    In the second table, you missed the seeding of Tomas Berdych, who is seeded #17.


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