The Summer of Jeff

Marcel spreadsheets for batters

Posted in baseball analysis by Jeff on July 23, 2010

Following up on my earlier post about historical Marcels, I’ve just posted full spreadsheets with Marcel forecasts for hitters going back to 1901.

For each year, I included a prediction for every non-pitcher who appeared in any of the previous three seasons, or would be a rookie that year.  (For the rookies, of course, the prediction is very close to league average.)  I didn’t distinguish at all between leagues, which I’m sure creates some wonkiness, especially around the years of the Federal League, the years of World War II, and the last few seasons, when the AL/NL difference became stark.

Click here for the directory with single-year spreadsheets available for download.  At some point in the near future I’ll add pitchers, and at some point in the less-near future I’ll make a more user-friendly interface so that you can view the stats directly on the web.

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  1. [...] with hitters, I’ve made no league-specific adjustments.  ERA is calculated using Marcel-projected IP and [...]

  2. Andrew said, on August 3, 2010 at 5:28 pm

    Great work!
    I was looking at the data and I am surprised that no one saw this error so maybe I am doing something wrong.
    For the 5 years that I looked at, the hitters data is missing doubles, but doubles are listed in the header. So all of the data is off by one column after that point.

    This makes it look like Ryan Howard was projected to have 121 HRs in 2009 (really 121 RBIs).

    • Jeff said, on August 3, 2010 at 6:32 pm

      Thanks for letting me know. Just fixed it and uploaded new files.

  3. KJOK said, on August 3, 2010 at 9:05 pm

    Jeff:

    First, these are GREAT!

    However I notice your 2009 file numbers are just off slightly from Tango’s official 2009 Marcels, so wondering what is the difference? Is yours based on 2007-2009, and I just misunderstood (the official 2009 one is based on 2006-2008)?

    THANKS,
    KJOK

    • KJOK said, on August 3, 2010 at 9:07 pm

      Nevermind – The differences are so slight, it must be rounding difference somewhere.

      THANKS,
      Kevin

      • Jeff said, on August 4, 2010 at 2:53 am

        Also possible that we’re using different source data. I’m using the baseball databank (baseball-reference’s source) but there are a couple of other options. And yes, if one of us is rounding our league average (or something like that), it would produce slight differences.


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